Mark Carney and the Future of Canada’s Social Programs

The stakes for Canada’s social safety net have rarely been higher.

Mark Carney is widely seen as the frontrunner for the Liberal leadership—and potentially Canada’s next Prime Minister. Yet, much of his campaign has focused on cutting government operating expenses rather than firmly committing to the new social programs that are helping make Canada a more fair and just society.

However, at the February 25, 2025, English debate, Carney made a significant shift. He publicly voiced support for the national child care plan, as well as the emerging public dental and pharmacare programs—possibly for the first time in a televised event. This moment matters, not only because these programs are vital for millions of Canadians, but because the political climate is increasingly pressuring federal leaders to redirect public funds toward expanding military spending.

Regardless of what happens with military budgets—and there are strong arguments against ramping them up—Canada’s next government must protect and expand our social programs. Child care, dental care, and pharmacare must not only be maintained but strengthened to ensure they become truly universal public goods. Other recent initiatives, like the National School Food Program, also need long-term stability.

After six decades without major national social programs, Canada made remarkable progress in just a few years. Child care was introduced in 2021, followed by dental care in 2023, and pharmacare in 2024 (though bilateral implementing agreements with provinces are still rolling out). This historic expansion was made possible by two unusual factors: the federal government’s willingness to spend during the COVID crisis and the political leverage of the NDP in a minority Parliament. Such a unique alignment of conditions may not come again soon, especially as military spending is pushed toward the NATO target of 2% of GDP.

Even if these new social programs don’t immediately expand to full universality, losing them altogether would be a tragedy. Yet that’s precisely what Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has hinted he may do—at least insofar as dental care and pharmacare are concerned—if he becomes Prime Minister. The stakes for Canada’s social safety net have rarely been higher. The next government will decide whether these hard-won gains endure—or are dismantled entirely.